2024-12-13 05:52:28
The increase of inter-bank interest rate bonds continued to expand. The yield of China's 10-year active bond 240011 hit a new low of 1.86%, falling by 4.50 basis points in the day.Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.In November, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.9%.
Malaysia's parliament passed a bill to expand network control, and Malaysia's parliament voted to pass a bill to expand local government's network control, imposing more severe penalties on content violations and giving law enforcement departments extensive powers, such as any authorized official can search and detain without a search warrant. As for the Internet service providers, they may have to bear the responsibilities according to law and be forced to disclose user information to the authorities during the investigation of suspected violations. According to the report, large-scale scientific enterprises such as Meta have pointed out in the past that they will abide by local laws and regulations in Malaysia, but they believe that excessive supervision will endanger the right to public discourse and bring unfair burden to online platforms.Huang Wentao, China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd.: Policy strength and tools are expected to achieve new breakthroughs. the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, said in the latest interpretation that the meeting first mentioned "strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", and the policy framework is expected to get rid of the mindset and achieve new breakthroughs in strength and tools. Huang Wentao mentioned that the "unconventional" policy will be mainly reflected in the breakthrough of the original conventional policy model, including: First, the breakthrough of monetary policy from "steady" to "moderately loose", and the transformation from the traditional model to the modern central bank system in the transmission system. Second, it is expected that the fiscal deficit constraint of 3% will be greatly exceeded, and the mode of financial development may also be optimized in the past, with more inclination to the residential sector. Third, in stabilizing the capital market, more powerful and effective measures are introduced to prevent excessive market volatility. "The stocks and debts are expected to continue." Huang Wentao pointed out that the unconventional countercyclical adjustment policy not only provides sufficient impetus for the recovery of economic vitality, but also provides strong support for improving expectations and reviving confidence, and provides sufficient source of living water for the capital market. The stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and the risk-free rate of return is expected to continue to decline.The diet pills sector strengthened locally, with Changshan Pharmaceutical rising by over 13%, followed by Hanyu Pharmaceutical, Shengnuo Bio, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical and Borui Pharmaceutical.
The RMB rose linearly, and the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both rose above the 7.25 mark in the morning session. As of 10: 10, the onshore and offshore RMB reported 7.2465 and 7.2487 respectively against the US dollar, with an average appreciation of more than 100 points in the day.The 10-year Treasury ETF rose 0.50% to 133.799 yuan, a record high.According to the data released by Shanghai Steel Union, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (in early trading) rose by 200 yuan compared with the previous day, with an average price of 76,450 yuan/ton.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
Strategy guide
12-13